Travel Demand Modeling

What Is A Transportation Model?

• A set of mathematical relationships to represent (model) the choices people make  when traveling. These choices include how many trips to make, where to, and what modes. Travel demand is the combined effect of thousands of individuals making these choices.
• A tool to help planners study the impacts of alternate transportation scenarios, such as new highways, bus route changes, or parking restrictions on future travel demand,in order to make informed policy decisions.

Why Are Models Important?

• Federal law requires Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs), including the Farmington MPO, to address at least a 20 year planning horizon, including short- and long-range strategies, to develop an integrated intermodal transportation system.
• Models provide a multimodal evaluation of the transportation, socioeconomic, environmental, and financial impacts of a transportation project.
• Model estimations help policy makers prioritize how millions of transportation dollars will be spent to ensure taxpayer dollars are used wisely.
• Utilizing the best tools available helps ensure high-quality transportation services at a reasonable cost with minimal environmental impact.

What Can Our Model Do?

• Forecast the number of trips on the region’s road, transit and trail networks.
• Project long-range traffic growth patterns by area and roadway network.
• Highlight the traffic impacts of new land use developments.
• Estimate air quality based on Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT).
• Evaluate the effectiveness of various transportation project scenarios.
• Test policy implications of travel mode choice (Travel Demand Management).
• Help local jurisdiction find ways to mitigate current and future traffic capacity constraints.

Model Limitations

• The model is a statistical estimation of regional travel behavior. As such, it should only be used for general planning purposes.